Preview
Third time lucky. Risks and Trends was initially planned for 24 January this year. However, the daily number of new COVID-19 cases at the time fluctuated between 30,000 and 50,000, and it was estimated that the official figures may have been underestimated by up to tenfold; the number of deaths due to coronavirus at the start of the year reached almost 300 per day. That is why we decided to postpone the conference until spring. However, a short while later, war broke out in Ukraine and we decided that the situation was too precarious. We did not want to organise a conference at a time of the Russian invasion of Poland's neighbour, the huge scale of the human tragedy in Ukraine, and the massive wave of refugees. So the decision was made to hold it on Monday 24 October.
Everything has changed in the past ten months... It seems like centuries have passed since January. Today we divide reality into before and during the war -a war that has practically wiped from our minds the pandemic we had been living with for the previous two years, convinced that COVID-19 would be the event opening the chapter on the second decade of the 21st century in every history book. As it is, we barely remember the pandemic anymore, even though its long-term effects are and will continue to be enormous. The digital transformation has taken off, we have revolutionised the way we work, and the consequences of government policies aimed at protecting their economies from the turbulence caused by lockdowns and broken supply chains have fuelled a crisis that will be with us for months, if not years.
...and yet the problems and challenges are the same. In January, we envisaged that the main theme of the conference would be uncertainty. This only got worse. We wanted to talk about the security of the region, the looming economic crisis, the bumps along the road of European politics and about challenges to the necessary energy transition. In a week's time, Marek Świerczyński and his guests will be discussing the West's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Robert Tomaszewski will talk about re-evaluating climate policy in the face of war, Magdalena Cedro will tackle keeping the EU together, and Adam Czerniak will discuss surviving at a time of stagflation. One gets the impression that the problems and challenges have not only not changed, but that their importance and urgency have increased.
In search of constructive conclusions. In the coming days, the moderators will be previewing their discussions and introducing the panellists in PI Premium. During Risks and Trends, we will try to assess the situation in which we find ourselves and attempt to answer the question of how to deal with the resulting challenges. For the past year, and in fact, for the past three years, we were ruled by emotion, anxiety and the strain of uncertainty. It is now time to come to terms with the uncertainty. Each of the issues under debate - the response to the war in Ukraine, the re-evaluation of thinking about the energy transition, the deep tensions within the EU and, finally, the economic crisis - are problems that we cannot resolve today or in the short term. But it is our responsibility to consider them calmly and have a frank conversation about how to return to the path of peace, stability and development.
Has Poland become a frontline country? In January, we had planned to begin with a speech by the new US ambassador to Poland, Mark Brzezinski. The new representative of the American administration generated excitement and a great deal of interest. A little while earlier, Andrzej Duda had vetoed a bill colloquially known as lex-TVN, and Polish-American relations were extremely difficult. Today, Ambassador Brzezinski no longer needs an introduction, and Polish-American relations - while not ideal - are the best they have been since the White House resident changed at the beginning of 2021. That's why next week, I will ask Brzezinski in the opening conversation about what impressed him most about Poland in the first months of the war. We will talk about how Poland became a frontline country and what implications this has for Poland and the region. I will try to find out what lies ahead for the US-Poland alliance in the months and years to come.
Partners
This year's Risks and Trends would not take place without the support and help of our partners and friends. This year's partners include: Amazon, Deloitte, Żabka Group, Żywiec Group, IKEA, KGHM and Janssen. Our partners this year also include the European Council on Foreign Relations and the Clean Air Fund. These are the companies and organisations with whom we were privileged to work on the programme and the side events. Without you, this conversation would not have been possible. Thank you. 
