Preview
Is the West at war with Russia? The panel "How to defend the West" will begin by attempting to define the status of the ongoing conflict between Russia and the collective West. The military aggression against Ukraine is the most acute, but not the only manifestation of this confrontation. Cutting off the supply of energy resources to Europe, armed provocations against NATO, attacks by the authorities in Moscow on institutions and organisations associated with the West, propaganda war and the Kremlin's rhetoric of a "clash of civilisations" - are all indicative of Russia's embarking on a trajectory of confrontation that derails its rapprochement with Western democracy, which has lasted more than 20 years. Despite the clear signs of Russia's unilateral declaration of war on the West, the assessment of the situation is still not clear, which impacts strategies for adapting to or opposing Russian aggression at various levels. So, the assessment of whether there is a war underway between Russia and the West, and if so, what kind of war, will be the starting point for further discussion.
Who is in charge and who is being commanded? Whether or not the panellists call the ongoing confrontation a war, it is worth asking whether the collective West has adequate structures for consultation, situation assessment and decision-making in the face of a dynamically changing threat. There are at least three collective policy-setting blocs of states in play: NATO - which does not engage in the conflict directly, but coordinates military support for Ukraine; the European Union - which has a leading role in the sanctions policy and efforts to contain the energy crisis; and the US-led global coalition of more than 50 countries (made up of NATO states and US allies), which supports Ukraine militarily and financially. Should US President Joe Biden be considered the "commander-in-chief" of the West? What is the role of the leaders of the EU countries, the UK and Ukraine's immediate neighbours? What does the current situation tell us about the usefulness of the UN and OSCE?
Does the West have a coherent strategy? Successfully countering Russia requires cooperation in many areas: military, energy, food, information and cybersecurity. While all these domains have become a field of confrontation between Russia and the West, only some are subject to an agreement within Western political, economic and security structures. Divergent interests and national rivalries are most evident in the area of energy resources, which Russia ruthlessly exploits. Is a united and coherent Western front even possible? Are individual states able to temporarily suspend their own ambitions or, on the contrary, are they using the period of confrontation with Russia to improve their own position vis-à-vis their formal allies? How does the strategy of opposing Russia influence and correspond with containing China's global expansion? Finally, does the West have a new Moscow-Tehran-Pyongyang "axis of evil" against it and how will Beijing position itself vis-à-vis the latter?
What should constitute a victory for the West? The international community would like to see the quickest possible end to the war and the beginning of the reconstruction of Ukraine. At the same time, there is a growing realisation that peace without overpowering Russia may be temporary and will be followed by an even worse war. The prevailing belief is that Ukraine will not give up the fight until it ousts or forces the withdrawal of Russian troops from all of its territory, including the Crimea and Donbas occupied in 2014-2015. However, the West's objectives in combating Russian aggression go beyond the battlefield. Joe Biden at one time described them as depriving Russia of the ability to attack anyone in the future. Is this a realistic intention? How to assess whether it has been met? Or does the collective West already have some other goal for its confrontation with Russia? Following the decisions and statements of the leaders of the various countries, one can conclude that everyone sees the end result differently. How do our panellists see it?
the Panellists
The opening panel of this year's Risks and Trends, "How to defend the West", will include Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović - former President of the Republic of Croatia and co-author of the Three Seas Initiative; retired US Navy Rear Admiral and IP3 co-founder and CEO Michael Hewitt; Guillaume Lasconjarias, Director of the French Institute for Higher National Defence Studies; Rafael Loss, German security expert from the European Council on Foreign Relations; and Fabrice Pothier, CEO of Rasmussen Global and long-time civilian official at NATO Headquarters. 
