Takeaway
The panellists talked about the EU's successes... Head of the Warsaw branch of the European Council on Foreign Relations Piotr Buras, who moderated the debate, asked participants about the EU's greatest achievements and failures with regard to the war in Ukraine. The interviewees pointed to the unprecedented speed and efficiency with which EurCom and its member states implemented successive sanctions packages. Deputy head of the Estonian Centre for Defence and Security Kristi Raik said that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had become a wake-up call for the bloc, which was now more aware of geopolitical threats. Europe was able to use the tools at its disposal to provide Ukraine with financial and humanitarian assistance in an efficient manner, she added.
...and its failures. German Ambassador Thomas Bagger saw Europe's inability to maintain peace as its greatest failure. Managing Director for Europe at the Eurasia Group Mujtaba Rahman emphasised the slowness with which the EU realised its own shortcomings in terms of armaments and the need for, e.g. joint arms purchases. According to the panellists, the EU wasted the first year of the war - it should have devoted it to coordinating armaments and boosting production capacity. The problems with meeting Ukraine's ammunition needs show that in terms of "hard power" Europe failed to rise to the challenge. This in turn shows that the United States continues to provide the EU with, as the German ambassador put it, "existential guarantees".
To expand, the EU must reform itself. Putin has redrawn the dividing lines in Europe - in this configuration, Ukraine is "on our side", the German ambassador stressed. Consequently, the EU's expansion to include this country is part of the Zeitenwende (German for "turning point") - a fundamental shift in German policy caused by the war, which Bagger also called a "mental change". The bloc must, however, be ready for this change, something that should become a priority for the new EurCom elected after the European elections in 2024. In this context, the panellists discussed moving away from unanimity in, for instance, foreign policy. However, Raik pointed out that this does not necessarily mean majority voting but, for instance, unanimity minus one or two countries, which would prevent abuse of the veto. The need to rethink the distribution of EU funds was also pointed out (as enlargement will mean less money for individual members).
It is necessary to decide on an approach to China. For, as Bagger pointed out, although the discussion in Warsaw now focuses on Russia, it is China that poses a growing threat to the EU. The panellists made reference to the debate on reducing dependence on China in strategic sectors, which is currently underway in the EU (its new China strategy is due to be published in June). Although the bloc is currently re-evaluating its stance on China, there is still no consensus on what this should be. A new concept promoted by EurCom head Ursula von der Leyen is the de-risking of China, which is a softer version of the strategy of "decoupling" the US from China.
Building the EU's strategic autonomy is not easy. Talking about such autonomy at a time when Europe does not yet have the capacity to defend itself is not credible for countries neighbouring Russia, Kristi Raik said. At the same time, she pointed out that the EU must prepare for building its own capabilities in the future and for a possible weakening of the US presence in Europe. Rahmann noted that the catalysts for reflection on building the EU's independence included the isolationist presidency of Donald Trump and the pandemic which highlighted the supply chains' dependence on China. Differing foreign policy visions that hinder the development of a common EU strategy will similarly do nothing to help the EU establish itself as a geopolitical actor.
The EU's newer members have a chance to take the lead. Rahman drew attention to the vacuum in EU leadership following the departure of Chancellor Angela Merkel and the concomitant increase in the role of EurCom as a result of a series of crises (the pandemic, war). In his view, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has so far failed to grow into a leadership role in the bloc while French President Emmanuel Macron's domestic position has been severely weakened after elections that deprived his camp of an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Bagger pointed out that, although the war in Ukraine has shifted the EU's attention to the east, this has not so far translated into a real shift of the EU's centre of power. Raik, meanwhile, pointed out that the strengthening of the Central and Eastern European countries is hampered by their lack of a unified political strategy and by problems with the rule of law in Poland and Hungary. 
* The Warsaw European Conversation conference was organised by Polityka Insight and the European Council on Foreign Relations. The event's partners were Orange, Deloitte, the European Climate Foundation, McDonald's, Nexity, the Polish Association of Developers, Veolia, Visa and Żabka Group.
