Warsaw European Conversation

The energy crisis continues

Takeaway 2023-05-31
The panel “Energy Transition and Security: The Road to European Resilience” addressed the future of gas and nuclear, as well as European supply chains.

Takeaway

The energy crisis is not over yet. According to Krzysztof Bolesta of DG ENER, there are still many unknowns in dealing with the energy crisis and we cannot afford to be optimistic. The panellist recommended caution in the introduction of further solutions; in his view, one should rather wait for the effects of those that are already in place. Dalida Gepfert, CEO of Veolia Contracting Polska, added that we were in a safe but not comfortable situation, especially in the context of coal prices. She expressed how businesses are concerned about state interventionism, which makes it difficult to shape long-term offers for customers expecting price predictability. The panellist emphasised that the implementation of legislative changes requires a deep commitment from the business sector.

Decarbonising the heating industry is difficult. According to Gepfert, the use of renewable energy sources (RES) in heat production is limited, as it usually has to be supplied to customers in winter, when photovoltaic panels produce less energy. Gepfert pointed to gas-fired units as the “only sensible alternative to coal”. She emphasised that the transformation of the heating sector should go in the direction of energy efficiency, which will reduce the use of fossil fuel energy. According to the discussion participant, the climate crisis is also a threat to the sector due to physical risks, such as natural disasters that can damage generation units and transmission networks.

Russia remains a player in the EU energy market. Senior analyst at Eurasia Group Federico Santi reminded that Russia was still among the top five exporters of gas to the EU, but pointed out that a full cut-off by Russia is unlikely and would no longer be such a significant problem. The participant in the debate emphasised that Europe's success in diversifying its supplies and reducing its gas consumption was at a cost of the economic slowdown and a decline in industrial production. In turn, according to Senior Analyst at ECFR Szymon Kardaś, the reduction of energy dependence on Russia is a paradigm shift and a return to business as usual is no longer possible. Once the war is over, however, Russia may tempt some EU countries and urge them to renew collaboration with companies operating on its territory.

The EU is not giving up on CO2 sequestration. Krzysztof Bolesta, who heads the DG ENER team preparing the EU strategy for the development of CO2 sequestration technology (Carbon Management Strategy), presented its general assumptions. He announced that it would be based on public aid mechanisms, the simplification of permitting processes, and targets for the development of CO2 storage capacity. He emphasised that CO2 sequestration technologies (CCUS) are needed especially in the decarbonisation of those industries that cannot completely eliminate greenhouse gas emissions, such as the cement, chemical, and steel industries. He also admitted that the EurCom's original intention to use CCUS technologies to decarbonise the power industry proved to be misguided, as the sector is decarbonising through other solutions, such as renewable energy generation. The Carbon Management Strategy is scheduled to be announced in autumn 2023.

Europe needs to agree on nuclear energy. Szymon Kardaś emphasised the harmfulness of the EU conflict over the role of nuclear energy in the community's climate policy. In his opinion, this issue requires mutual understanding and respect between countries that include nuclear power in their decarbonisation strategies, such as France, and those that have decided to phase out nuclear power plants, such as Germany. He stipulated that the role of RES in decarbonisation is much more obvious, but did not negate the potential of nuclear. He simultaneously reminded that Russia remains an important player in the European nuclear sector, supplying fuel to 18 reactors in Europe.

* The Warsaw European Conversation conference was organised by Polityka Insight and the European Council on Foreign Relations. Event partners were Orange, Deloitte, European Climate Foundation, McDonald's, Nexity, Polski Związek Firm Deweloperskich, Veolia, Visa and Żabka Group.

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Julia Cydejko
Energy Analyst
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j.cydejko@politykainsight.pl
Julia Cydejko
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Ryszard Kolasiński
Energy Analyst
Ryszard Kolasiński
PI Alert
10:00
28.06.2024

EU summit: Member States launch discussion on financing joint defence initiatives

State of play

Leaders approved appointments to top posts. At the EU summit that ended on Thursday night, they nominated Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as head of EurCom, former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa as head of EurCou and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as head of EU diplomacy. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni abstained from voting for von der Leyen and voted against Costa and Kallas. This means that Meloni is preparing for tough negotiations and may demand a high political price in return for his party's support for von der Leyen in her approval in the EurParl. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán voted against von der Leyen and abstained on Kallas.

They adopted the Union's strategic agenda for 2024-2029. Over the next five years, the Union's goals include a successful digital and green transformation by "pragmatically" pursuing the path to climate neutrality by 2050. Another objective is to strengthen the EU's security and defence capabilities.

Von der Leyen spoke of EUR 500 billion for defence over a decade. This was the EurCom estimate of needed EU investment presented by its head at the EurCou meeting. Poland and France were among the countries that expected the EurCom to present possible options for financing defence investments before the summit, such as EU financing of common expenditure from a common borrowing. This idea was strongly opposed by Germany and the Netherlands, among others. In the end, von der Leyen decided to postpone the debate until after the constitution of the new EurCom, i.e. in the autumn. And the summit - after von der Leyen's oral presentation - only launched a preliminary debate on possible joint financing of defence projects.

Poland has submitted two defence projects. These might be co-financed by EU funds. On the eve of the summit, Poland and Greece presented in writing a detailed concept for an air defence system for the Union (Shield and Spear), which Prime Ministers Donald Tusk and Kyriakos Mitostakis had put forward - in a more general form - in May. In addition, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia presented the idea of jointly strengthening the defence infrastructure along the EU's borders with Russia and Belarus. Poland is pushing for the EU to go significantly beyond its current plans to support the defence industry with EU funds and agree to spend money on defence projects similar to the two proposals. But EU states are far from a consensus on the issue.

Zelensky signed a security agreement with the Union. The document, signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky in Brussels, commits all member states and the EU as a whole to "help Ukraine defend itself, resist efforts to destabilise it and deter future acts of aggression". The document recalls the EUR 5 billion the EU intends to allocate for military aid and training in 2024 (in addition to bilateral aid from EU countries to Kyiv). It says that "further comparable annual increases could be envisaged until 2027, based on Ukrainian needs" i.e. it could amount to up to EUR 20 billion. Ukraine's agreement with the EU comes on top of the bilateral security "guarantees" Ukraine has already signed with a dozen countries (including the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy). As Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed in Brussels, talks are also underway between Ukraine and Poland on the text of mutual commitments on security issues.

PI Alert
21:00
09.06.2024

KO wins elections to the European Parliament

KO received 38.2 per cent of the vote and PiS 33.9 per cent, according to an exit poll by IPSOS. Konfederacja came in third with 11.9 per cent, followed by Trzecia Droga with 8.2 per cent, Lewica with 6.6 per cent, Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy with 0.8 per cent and Polexit with 0.3 per cent. According to the exit poll, KO gained 21 seats, PiS 19, Konfederacja 6, Trzecia Droga 4 and Lewica gained 3. The turnout was 39.7 per cent.

According to the European Parliament's first projection, the centre-right European People's Party (EPP), which includes, among others, PO and PSL, will remain the largest force with 181 MEPs in the 720-seat Parliament. The centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), whose members include the Polish Lewica, should have 135 seats, whereas the liberal Renew Europe club (including Polska 2050) will have 82 seats. This gives a total of 398 seats to the coalition of these three centrist factions (EPP, S&D and Renew Europe) on which the European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen has relied on so far. The Green faction wins 53 seats according to the same projection, the European Conservatives and Reformists faction (including PiS) 71 seats and the radical right-wing Identity and Democracy 62 seats.

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