Warsaw European Conversation

What are the economic challenges faced by Europe

Takeaway 2024-03-18
The main economic challenges discussed during the Warsaw European Conversation included economic security, digital security, and green transformation.

Takeaway

A significant challenge is to ensure the economic security of the EU. During the "Geoeconomics: Looking for Engines of Growth" panel, Deputy Minister of Development Ignacy Niemczycki highlighted that thorough screening of foreign direct investments entering the EU and export control are crucial pillars of the EU's security strategy. Panel participants emphasised the necessity of identifying threats, particularly within supply chains. Román Arjona, Chief Economist at the Directorate-General for the Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship, and SMEs of the EurCom, observed that Brussels recognizes threats stemming from China's significant involvement in trade. He also advocated leveraging the potential resulting from cooperation with resource-rich countries, such as those in the G7 group, Argentina, and Uganda. Quentin Genard, Executive Director of the European Climate Foundation, underscored that both economic and political factors play a vital role in investment location decisions.

The Green Deal is not destined to fail, but it requires improved communication strategies. Ilona Jędrasik, the new head of the ClientEarth Foundation, stressed the importance of continuing the Green Deal during the "Climate and Energy Transition - a European Green Deal" panel. Addressing the farmers' protests, she said that agricultural regulations represent just one aspect of the Green Deal, which overall benefits EU citizens. Similarly, during the "Geoeconomics: Looking for Engines of Growth" panel, Niemczycki echoed this sentiment, highlighting that many farmers stand to gain from the Green Deal, although he acknowledged understanding their protests, being a farm owner himself. Deputy MinClim Krzysztof Bolesta, participating in the Green Deal discussion, suggested that politicians have lost the "communication battle," leading citizens to doubt the principle of a just transition, particularly amid the conflict in Ukraine and rising prices impacting the economy.

The energy transition is inevitable, but further action is necessary. Susi Dennison, senior director for strategy and transformation at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECRF), highlighted the importance of strong cooperation between EU countries to accelerate the energy transformation. Bolesta said that there is no time for debates on the best energy transformation model, advocating for the EU to adhere to the principle of technological neutrality, which means nuclear energy should not face discrimination. Ilona Jędrasik stressed the necessity of legal changes at the national level, citing the need for liberalisation of wind farm laws in Poland as an example. Grzegorz Kotte, deputy CEO of Enea Wytwarzanie and technical director of the coal-fired power plant in Kozienice, acknowledged the challenges faced by residents of that coal-dependent city in envisioning life without coal. However, he also admitted that coal has no future, predicting that falling wholesale electricity prices due to the increasing share of renewable energy sources (RES) will make it increasingly difficult for coal-fired power plants to remain profitable, with gas units facing similar challenges in the future.

Digital regulations do not guarantee the development of innovation. The assessment of the acts adopted during the outgoing EurCom term divided the conference participants. During the "Digital Future: Between Regulations and Competitiveness" panel, Toomas Ilves, former president of Estonia, criticised the prevalent belief in Europe that innovation will thrive solely through regulations. Deputy Minister of Digitalisation Dariusz Standerski echoed this sentiment but highlighted the importance of new institutions established under the recent laws to support innovation. Mari-Noëlle Jégo Laveissière, deputy executive for Europe at Orange, noted the absence of technological champions in Europe. In contrast, Ewelina Jelenkowska-Lucà, representative of the EurCom, defended European regulations, said that legislation is just one component of a broader EU strategy that includes investments. She clarified that Europe does not regulate technology itself but its specific usage.

Europe needs a change in its approach to cybersecurity. Ilves underscored the urgent need for a shift in Europe's approach to cybersecurity, citing the extensive history of cyberattacks on European countries, including the digital offensive on Estonia in 2007. He advocated for security to become a top priority for the EU, not only in the context of digital transformation but also in energy and green initiatives. Standerski highlighted the crucial role of cooperation, both between national services and internationally, in combating digital threats. His observation that a system's strength is only as robust as its weakest component was echoed by Jelenkowska-Lucà. She acknowledged that previous efforts to bolster Europe's digital security had fallen short but cited the recent adoption of the Cyber Resilience Act by the EurParl on March 12 as a positive step toward addressing past shortcomings.

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Aleksander Kieroński
Junior Business Analyst
Aleksander Kieroński
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Jan Jęcz
Digital Economy Analyst
Jan Jęcz
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Julia Cydejko
Energy Analyst
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Julia Cydejko
PI Alert
10:00
28.06.2024

EU summit: Member States launch discussion on financing joint defence initiatives

State of play

Leaders approved appointments to top posts. At the EU summit that ended on Thursday night, they nominated Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as head of EurCom, former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa as head of EurCou and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as head of EU diplomacy. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni abstained from voting for von der Leyen and voted against Costa and Kallas. This means that Meloni is preparing for tough negotiations and may demand a high political price in return for his party's support for von der Leyen in her approval in the EurParl. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán voted against von der Leyen and abstained on Kallas.

They adopted the Union's strategic agenda for 2024-2029. Over the next five years, the Union's goals include a successful digital and green transformation by "pragmatically" pursuing the path to climate neutrality by 2050. Another objective is to strengthen the EU's security and defence capabilities.

Von der Leyen spoke of EUR 500 billion for defence over a decade. This was the EurCom estimate of needed EU investment presented by its head at the EurCou meeting. Poland and France were among the countries that expected the EurCom to present possible options for financing defence investments before the summit, such as EU financing of common expenditure from a common borrowing. This idea was strongly opposed by Germany and the Netherlands, among others. In the end, von der Leyen decided to postpone the debate until after the constitution of the new EurCom, i.e. in the autumn. And the summit - after von der Leyen's oral presentation - only launched a preliminary debate on possible joint financing of defence projects.

Poland has submitted two defence projects. These might be co-financed by EU funds. On the eve of the summit, Poland and Greece presented in writing a detailed concept for an air defence system for the Union (Shield and Spear), which Prime Ministers Donald Tusk and Kyriakos Mitostakis had put forward - in a more general form - in May. In addition, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia presented the idea of jointly strengthening the defence infrastructure along the EU's borders with Russia and Belarus. Poland is pushing for the EU to go significantly beyond its current plans to support the defence industry with EU funds and agree to spend money on defence projects similar to the two proposals. But EU states are far from a consensus on the issue.

Zelensky signed a security agreement with the Union. The document, signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky in Brussels, commits all member states and the EU as a whole to "help Ukraine defend itself, resist efforts to destabilise it and deter future acts of aggression". The document recalls the EUR 5 billion the EU intends to allocate for military aid and training in 2024 (in addition to bilateral aid from EU countries to Kyiv). It says that "further comparable annual increases could be envisaged until 2027, based on Ukrainian needs" i.e. it could amount to up to EUR 20 billion. Ukraine's agreement with the EU comes on top of the bilateral security "guarantees" Ukraine has already signed with a dozen countries (including the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy). As Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed in Brussels, talks are also underway between Ukraine and Poland on the text of mutual commitments on security issues.

PI Alert
21:00
09.06.2024

KO wins elections to the European Parliament

KO received 38.2 per cent of the vote and PiS 33.9 per cent, according to an exit poll by IPSOS. Konfederacja came in third with 11.9 per cent, followed by Trzecia Droga with 8.2 per cent, Lewica with 6.6 per cent, Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy with 0.8 per cent and Polexit with 0.3 per cent. According to the exit poll, KO gained 21 seats, PiS 19, Konfederacja 6, Trzecia Droga 4 and Lewica gained 3. The turnout was 39.7 per cent.

According to the European Parliament's first projection, the centre-right European People's Party (EPP), which includes, among others, PO and PSL, will remain the largest force with 181 MEPs in the 720-seat Parliament. The centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), whose members include the Polish Lewica, should have 135 seats, whereas the liberal Renew Europe club (including Polska 2050) will have 82 seats. This gives a total of 398 seats to the coalition of these three centrist factions (EPP, S&D and Renew Europe) on which the European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen has relied on so far. The Green faction wins 53 seats according to the same projection, the European Conservatives and Reformists faction (including PiS) 71 seats and the radical right-wing Identity and Democracy 62 seats.

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