Takeaway
No European army, but armed with a reaction force? MinFor Radosław Sikorski, who took part in the panel "Europe in 2024: a time of reckoning", stressed that there is no political will in the EU to create a European army, but that this should not jeopardise ambitions regarding a joint rapid reaction force. The plan to create such a formation of up to 5,000 troops (even by 2025) is already being considered in the EU, but Sikorski calls for them to be funded from the EU budget, rather than from the budgets of EU countries, which would be the case with EU projects. Recruiting soldiers as volunteers, i.e. not as part of their secondment by national armies, is another new element of Sikorski's vision. It would help to establish common EU rules for operations involving the use of force. The Rapid Reaction Force would carry out ad hoc defensive interventions in the EU's neighbourhood.
Defence has become an EU policy. The war in Ukraine abruptly pushed the EU to address defence issues, but - according to the Secretary General of the European External Action Service Stefano Sannino - the ground was partly prepared by earlier EU decisions. Money for enhancing the cooperation of defence industries was included in the EU's 2021-2027 budget. And now the challenge is to maintain a "sense of urgency" for EU countries to want to use existing tools of cooperation, and to help Ukraine. Will the EU use its common purse to pay for weapons and its war efforts in which people die in the future? EurCom Vice President Věra Jourová argued that today- after the experience of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine - even a radical strengthening of cooperation within the EU can hardly be considered unthinkable.
The Weimar Triangle as a way to make the EU more credible. ECFR director Mark Leonard argued that the format of permanent cooperation between France, Germany and Poland could become one of the tools for strengthening the EU's legitimacy in the eyes of Europeans. This is because it strengthens people's sense of being involved in making key decisions often attributed to the Berlin-Paris tandem. Sannino argued that a patchwork of cooperation groups within the EU, such as the Weimar Triangle or the Benelux, while complicating the image of the EU, can be a helpful instrument in the EU's difficult decision-making process. During a discussion on the quality of leadership in the EU, Minister Sikorski said EurCom chief Ursula von der Leyen actually saved the EU with her initiatives at the beginning of the pandemic.
Europe is gearing up for elections. According to Sannino, the period of campaigning leading up to the EurParl elections (to be held in the EU's 27 between June 6 and 9) should not be allowed to become a limbo moment in anticipation of the EU's new authorities. During this time, sustained interest in the war in Ukraine needs to be maintained so that the prepared assistance does not come too late. Leonard believes that the war in Ukraine will not be the leading topic of the European election campaign, so there will not be an anti-Ukrainian shift during the campaign. This will not happen because Europe's far-right parties differ in their approach to Ukraine - for instance, Italian Prime Minister Giorgi Meloni's Brothers of Italy party is strongly pro-Ukraine.
The US elections pose a real challenge. The panelists agreed that Donald Trump's potential return to power after the US presidential election this autumn should make Europeans realise that they are now responsible for their own security, and mobilise them to take the lead in supporting Ukraine. Leonard stressed that the 27 member states should make joint preparations to ensure that a possible change of power in the White House would be "something other than a disaster". Meanwhile, the only leader preparing for this eventuality is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who recently visited Trump in Florida, said the ECFR director ironically.
The EU is changing as a result of the war in Ukraine. While Leonard argued that by investing increasing amounts in security issues, the EU is ceasing to be a peace project, Sannino pointed out that it remains one, despite being forced to actively seek peace. Jourová pointed out that, confronted with the pandemic and the Russian invasion, Europe managed to stand "on its own two feet" - it started to become independent of cheap Chinese production and to seek independence in the area of strategic raw materials. It is also coping without Russian gas and, in the context of the forthcoming US elections, is preparing to function without its biggest ally. In the future, the EU will be irrevocably changed by its enlargement, with the addition of more countries, including Ukraine and Moldova. 
