Takeaway
General Piotr Błazeusz: we need to be ready. During the panel "Can Europe Defend Itself?" at the Warsaw European Conversation, the Deputy Chief of the General Staff said that the best protection against Russian aggression is to demonstrate such military power that the Kremlin would not even consider waging a war. He stressed the need for Europe to alter its approach to preparing societies for defence matters. It is crucial to continue the "decoupling" of Europe from the Russian economy and the "deglobalisation" of arms production to reduce dependence on subsequent subcontractors in the arms supply chains. A challenge for rapid rearmament is the standardisation of weapons and a shift in approach to manufacturers’ rights. The general acknowledged that US military leadership, regardless of political changes in the US, will remain the foundation of Europe's defence and NATO's operations. Although Błazeusz avoided speculation about current and future US policy, he said the basis of European and NATO defence lies in the capabilities and readiness of member states to act.
Benjamin Haddad: hope for a more serious approach in Europe. A member of the French National Assembly representing the Renaissance party remarked that European countries have finally begun to take defence matters seriously. Arms purchases are not merely European "protectionism" but a means to attain strategic freedom and independence from global producers. According to him, Europe should draw from the experience of combating the coronavirus and consider issuing defence Eurobonds. The French politician suggested that Europe could leverage its GDP for militarisation, thereby using economic methods more effectively to achieve strategic objectives. He urged for a bolder consideration of Europe's strategic independence, arguing that the fate of the continent should not hinge on the preferences of a single farmer from Wisconsin and his admiration for Donald Trump. Drawing from his experience with the US Congress, he indicated that the most effective way to encourage Republicans to aid Ukraine is to emphasise that its defeat would not only empower Russia but also strengthen adversaries like China or Iran.
Claudia Major: Europe will repel Russia. According to the head of the international security department at the German SWP think tank, the West can assist Ukraine not only by mobilising its industry but also by reevaluating its entire strategy for deterring Russia. She expressed concern over the rapid depletion of European stocks in favour of Ukraine and the lack of ability to replenish them. Major emphasised the importance of Europe reaching out to producers from outside the continent, such as South Korea and Israel. She acknowledged the difficulty of achieving political unity in Europe for a coherent, long-term foreign and defence policy. Major, like Błazeusz, rejected worst-case scenarios involving a sudden US withdrawal from Europe but conceded that US leadership, particularly in the military and political spheres, remains essential for Europe. She also highlighted Europe's inability to fill the gap in nuclear deterrence that would arise from an undesirable US withdrawal, similar to situations in Japan or Australia.
Johan Pelissier: we need to adopt a unified defence approach. As the head of Airbus, Johan Pelissier believes that adopting a common European planning and strategy centred on European defence production is crucial for achieving desired political and military outcomes. He highlighted Europe's lack of a unified approach, a "common defence policy" aimed at consolidating arms industries and setting shared production objectives that could serve as the foundation for a unified foreign policy. Pelissier acknowledged the challenges in transitioning extensive civilian production, such as that of Airbus, to military production, primarily due to political constraints.
Questions from the audience focused on deterrence and resilience. Members of the audience asked whether the strategic deterrence approach needed reconfiguration. In response, Błazeusz noted that it is a paradox but Europe remains at its lowest level of readiness to repel attacks. He highlighted the challenge for the military in balancing the realities of war with political response and armed forces management, citing the crisis following a missile explosion over Poland in 2022 as an example. He stressed the importance of reducing Europe's vulnerability to disruptions in public life caused by non-military actions of the enemy. Resilience, according to Błazeusz, extends beyond safeguarding critical infrastructure such as power lines and banking systems to the ability to respond to crises in various spheres of life. Other questions addressed resistance to social threats such as polarisation and disinformation. Major emphasised the significance of education in recognising information warfare and fostering an open society. She underscored the importance of building personal resilience among individual citizens as a crucial aspect of addressing these challenges.
