Poland’s geopolitical anxieties, trilogue agreement on waste

Polish saying of the week:
Zostawić kogoś na lodzie
“To leave someone on ice”

Meaning: Confusingly, the Polish saying is different from its English equivalent – it indicates that someone has been left to deal with a difficult situation on their own. Like with a certain global power and its supposed allies.

FEBRUARY 20, 2025 Highlights With US-Russia reset looming, Poland is confused and anxious. Donald Trump’s rush to negotiate a “peace deal” with Russia in the first month of his second presidency has left Warsaw deeply shocked. While his fast pace may have been anticipated, the sudden U-turn in US policy on Ukraine, Europe, and NATO is something of a nightmare turning into reality. Torn between the need to sustain a strategic Poland-US military alliance, coordinate action with European partners, and, last but not least, win the presidential elections in May, Donald Tusk struggles with a response.

The bigger picture | The term “reset” has a lot of baggage in Polish politics. In recent years, the key accusation leveled by the PiS camp against Tusk was that his previous government (2007–2014) sought a reset in relations with Russia. Now, even right-wing politicians are beginning to feel disillusioned with their once-beloved Donald Trump. So far, Tusk has mostly been in step with his European friends, but he and other EU leaders will have to ensure that they are coming from a position of sufficient strength that the moment requires

As the EU enters panic mode, Czesław Siekierski keeps calm and carries on. On Feb. 19, the Polish Minister of Agriculture visited Polityka Insight for a Q&A session. Earlier that day, the European Commission unveiled A Vision for Agriculture and Food, which sets out plans for the next five years. While the Vision does not back away from EU climate goals, opposed by farmers in some EU countries, including Poland, it proposes a more protectionist policy to improve the farmers’ market position (while also remaining open to new international trade deals). Some say that you can't have your cake and eat it, too — but perhaps you can?

The bigger picture | The EU is certainly a global superpower when it comes to producing strategic documents. At PI, Siekierski took a cautious position. In a characteristically calm tone, he expressed some reservations, while avoiding veering into criticisms. After all, “It’s just a vision,” he said. In his view, the EU tries to do too much at once. It’s just that some things take time. People need to adapt to changing realities instead of being pushed to do so. Siekierski, a longtime Polish People’s Party (PSL) politician, represents of course the more conservative faction of the Polish government.



Poland’s push for fewer EU barriers for business. At the Feb. 17 Single Market Forum conference, organized in Kraków by the Ministry of Development, government representatives called for strengthening the EU’s single market for services in sectors such as transport and construction. At the event, Poland presented the latest edition of its “Black Book” on barriers in the EU single market, which finds that cross-border posting of workers faces the most significant obstacles for companies.

The bigger picture | In Poland’s view, a more robust single market is essential to improving the EU’s competitiveness. Warsaw is pushing for EU action on this issue and wants the upcoming EU Single Market Strategy, scheduled for release in June, to propose specific solutions. Still, the real power to dismantle these barriers lies with EU member states. Given the protectionist tendencies of major EU economies, Poland does not expect sweeping reform. What it sees, though, is a window of opportunity to argue for better market integration, due to the evolving geopolitical landscape, especially the return of Donald Trump. A step in the right direction would be welcome.

In Brief While being excluded from peace talks, Europe agrees on new sanctions against Russia. The new penalties include a phased ban on aluminium imports, restrictions on dozens of ships in Moscow's shadow tanker fleet, and a ban on access to the SWIFT payment system for a dozen more banks. The package is not very strong, but, politically, it is a major achievement that the 27 EU countries reached on Feb. 19 a unanimous decision. This will allow the sanctions to be rubber-stamped by the FAC Council on the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Poland keeps pushing the EU on defence spending. Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, promised recently to explore additional “flexibilities” in the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) to allow EU countries to borrow more money for armaments. Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domański presented an informal proposal (“non-paper“) on the flexibilities issue just before the Ecofin meeting on Feb 18. He is hoping for an agreement by May. Poland wants the Commission to take into account in SGP procedures not only the cost of the supply of military equipment, but also infrastructure and personnel spending as well as other government investments in defence production capabilities. A late night agreement for the Polish presidency’s trilogue on waste. The sides of the so-called “trilogue” negotiations – the European Parliament and the Polish presidency (representing and mandated by the EU Council), along with the European Commission as mediator – reached an agreement on the revision of the Waste Framework Directive at around 3am on Feb. 19. The text, which now has to be formally considered and voted on by the EU Council and the European Parliament, includes the setting of EU targets for reducing food waste by 2030 and measures to ensure the textile sector curbs fast fashion’s wasteful practices. Poland underlines commitment to enlargement at informal GAC. With Commissioners Marta Kos and Piotr Serafin in attendance at the Feb. 18 meeting, the ministers discussed EU enlargement and the future EU budget, among other topics. Representatives of several candidate countries were present, including Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine, which was represented by Deputy PM Olha Stefanishyna. “The Polish Presidency is determined to facilitate EU enlargement,” said Minister for Europe Adam Szłapka. The Clean Industrial Deal will be all about… industrialisation. In the strategy paper, to be presented on Feb. 26, the European Commission intends to focus strongly on energy-intensive industry and the clean tech sector, but will not relax its target of a 90% reduction in CO2 by 2040. The aim is to revive industrialisation in Europe, increase Europe's competitiveness, and, eventually, lower energy prices. The major decisions announced in the Clean Industrial Deal will only become actionable once it becomes clear how much money will be allocated to them in the EU's new multi-annual budget, the draft of which will be announced in July. Noted It's increasingly clear that we need to act more and more as if we were one state. Mario Draghi at the European Parliament. Seemingly frustrated that everyone read the Draghi Report but no one is implementing it, Draghi advised EU leaders to stop whining and finally “do something.” There is no prospect that the United States will withdraw from Europe. Quite the contrary. President Andrzej Duda after his meeting with Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump's Ukraine envoy. Duda sought to reassure the public about US security policy. He emphasized that the number of American troops in Poland will not be reduced. The view from Poland The presidential election’s black horse: the far-right Konfederacja candidate. If there’s one reason Donald Tusk has recently become the new best friend of the Polish business community, it’s Sławomir Mentzen. Consistently polling above 15%, Mentzen represents the economically libertarian (yet socially conservative) wing of the Konfederacja party. No wonder that Tusk’s Civic Coalition is eyeing Mentzen’s potential voters — Rafał Trzaskowski will need their support to beat Karol Nawrocki (PiS) in an expected second round of the election. But with Nawrocki’s campaign lacking momentum, Konfederacja hopes its candidate can overtake Nawrocki and face Trzaskowski directly. For now, that scenario remains a long shot, but Nawrocki would be wise to up his game. Bonus The Warsaw European Conversation is an annual conference tackling the most pressing challenges shaping Europe today and in the future. Hosted by Polityka Insight and the European Council on Foreign Relations, this high-level event brings together top executives, policymakers, and diplomats from Poland and beyond. The third edition, set for March 14, coincides with the midpoint of Poland’s presidency in the Council of the European Union. Key speakers will include Foreign Affairs Minister Radosław Sikorski, Finance Minister Andrzej Domański, Acting President of the German Marshall Fund Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, and CEO of the European Climate Foundation Laurence Tubiana.
Register now: www.politykainsight.pl/en/wec2025. What to watch next week Feb. 20-21 Ministers’ conference on "Future of labour in a digital Europe" in Gdańsk

Feb. 21 Coreper II meeting in Brussels

Feb. 24 The College of Commissioners visits Kyiv

Feb. 24 FAC Council in Brussels

Feb. 24 AGRIFISH Council in Brussels

Feb. 25 GAC Council in Brussels

Feb. 25 Conference "Sanctions circumvention: political and economic challenges" in Warsaw organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the EU Envoy for Sanctions

Feb. 26 European Commission to table the “Clean Industrial Deal”, the Action Plan on Affordable Energy, and two omnibus packages, on sustainability and investment simplification

Feb. 26 Coreper II and Coreper I meetings in Brussels

Today's newsletter was curated by:
Authors: Tomasz Bielecki, Tomasz Sawczuk, Sonia Sobczyk-Grygiel, Marek Świerczyński.
Editor: Hanna Kozłowska
Graphic design: Karolina Tomaszewska
Front-end development: Maciej Kurczewski
Project management and supervision: Joanna Bekker, Maciej Michalik and Marcin Bąba.

Photos: Press materials of European Union, Shutterstock, Forum, Jakub Szymczuk/KPRP.

About Polityka Insight:
POLITYKA INSIGHT is a source of knowledge about Polish and European politics and economy for business leaders, political decision-makers, and diplomats.

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