Ukraine
Won the battle for Western support. Kyiv had already benefited from military aid in the form of weapons and training since 2016, and had partner status with the European Union and NATO. Before the full-scale invasion, deliveries from the US and UK accelerated, despite Ukrainian politicians publicly expressing doubt that Russia would attack. From the first hours of the invasion, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his ministers were in contact with Western leaders, who immediately expressed unequivocal support for Ukraine. It took unprecedented forms: the EU is financing arms purchases for the first time, a global coalition of arms and ammunition donors has been formed under the auspices of NATO, several countries (e.g. Germany) have moved away from the ban on supplying arms to conflict areas, and Ukraine has become a candidate for accession to the EU. Kyiv's communications campaign is helping to sustain the support: daily speeches by Zelensky, his visits and appearances, and extensive use of social media.
Russia
Neo-imperial aggressor. Under Vladimir Putin, Russia has evolved from the political and trading partner of the West it was at the beginning of the 21st century to a conflicted and isolated dictatorship. Putin wants to rebuild Russia's sphere of influence along its borders, reduce US influence in Central and Eastern Europe and diminish NATO's military capability on its eastern flank. In order to justify the war with Ukraine, he accused the authorities in Kyiv of preparing an attack on Russia together with NATO and committing genocide against the Russian population in the Donbas. Despite the loss of lives and equipment (according to Ukraine, 145,000 Russian soldiers have already been killed), Putin's rule is not threatened and the Russian public largely accepts the Kremlin's aggressive stance.
United States
Uniter and defender of the West. Since the autumn of 2021, the Americans have been exposing Russia's aggressive intentions detected by their intelligence and preparing a military, diplomatic and economic response to the expected invasion. Washington has formed a coalition of more than 50 countries to supply Ukraine with arms, ammunition and humanitarian aid. US troop numbers in Europe surpassed 100,000 troops in the first weeks of the war. In a wave of support, confidence in the US leadership in the West increased, the ties between the European Union and the US deepened and the role of NATO as the sole guarantor of security in Europe is no longer in question.
China
Russia's silent ally. Beijing supports Russia's rhetoric against the West and harshly criticises US policy. It officially asserts that it opposes the war, but does not pressure Moscow to end its aggression. It limits itself only to warnings against the use of nuclear weapons. According to the US, China is close to a decision to militarily support Russia with arms and ammunition supplies. Such a decision would deepen the Beijing-Moscow military cooperation that has been ongoing for several years, and possibly create a new alliance of authoritarian powers. Potential Chinese aggression against Taiwan is one of the key destabilising factors in the world.
Turkey
Guardian of the Black Sea. In the initial phase of the conflict, Turkey closed the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to Russian warships leaving and entering the Black Sea and has maintained this blockade to this day. At the same time, with the involvement of the UN, Turkey negotiated an agreement that unblocked Ukrainian grain exports by sea. Turkey hosted the only direct Ukrainian-Russian talks in March/April 2022, after which Russia announced the withdrawal of troops from outside Kyiv. Subsequent Turkish offers of mediation failed to lead to talks.
Poland
Leader of solidarity with Ukraine. Poland opened its borders to millions of war refugees and gave Ukraine an arsenal of weapons (including over 200 tanks and 80 self-propelled artillery units). An international logistics centre has been established in Rzeszów, through which most of the world's military and humanitarian aid goes to Ukraine. Polish leaders - Prime Minister, President and ministers - have made the most visits to Kyiv of all leaders of allied countries and are in the most frequent contact with the Ukrainian government.
Finland and Sweden
New applicants to join NATO. In response to the war, public opinion in both countries began to overwhelmingly support entry into NATO. In 2022, first Finland and then Sweden agreed on accession and jointly submitted an application. After the NATO summit in Madrid, ratification began, which stalled in January 2023. Sweden's entry is blocked by Turkey, which demands the surrender of Kurdish activists and whose authorities were offended by the burning of a Koran in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm.
Belarus
A submissive vassal of Russia. Alyaksandr Lukashenka's autocratic regime has ceded the country's territory to Russian troops. Before the war, Russia tested an invasion of Ukraine in Belarus at the Zapad exercises, and on February 24, 2022, Russian troops moved from Belarus to Kyiv. The weak Belarusian opposition failed to publicly protest, although there were instances of sabotage. As a reward for his support, Putin gave Lukashenka Iskander missile systems.
Germany
A tentative ally. The EU's largest and richest country is one of the leaders in material and armed aid to Ukraine. Berlin stresses, however, that it is doing everything to avoid an escalation of the NATO conflict with Russia and that no decisions are taken unilaterally. Hence the cautious approach to arms transfers and lengthy agreements with allies, which are provoking criticism within the German government coalition, in the media and abroad.
Kazakhstan
A contender for leadership in Central Asia. Since Moscow has focused on its aggression against Ukraine, its military, economic and political position in the region has weakened. Taking advantage, Astana is carrying out a diplomatic offensive and seeking to replace Russia as a leader among the countries of the region. It is also avoiding open conflict with Moscow and helping it circumvent Western sanctions. Kazakhstan is also forced to balance between Russia and China.
Moldova
A prime mover in European integration. Chișinău applied for EU candidate status at the same time as Kyiv, a couple of days after the Russian invasion. Moldovan politicians, who until recently wanted to avoid open conflict with Russia, have unequivocally chosen the European path after the aggression against Ukraine. Some are also suggesting a deeper cooperation with NATO. Chișinău is aware that without Western support it will not be able to cope with the Russian threat.
